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Darrell Castle tries to make sense of the Syrian Civil War which has been raging sometimes hot and sometimes cold for many years.
Transcription / Notes:
Hello, this is Darrell Castle with today’s Castle Report. This is Friday the 13th day of December in the year of our Lord 2024. I will be talking about the Syrian Civil War which has been raging sometimes hot and sometimes cold for many years. It’s very difficult to make sense out of something that makes no sense, but I will try to do so.
This is the Christmas season here in the Castle household and therefore it is the last Friday that I will be able to bring the Castle Report this year. I will join you again, God willing, on Friday, January 3, 2025. Enjoy the holidays with those you love and by all means celebrate Christmas.
The title of this report indicates that I am taking the position that Turkey won the Syrian Civil War because the fall and removal of strong man Bashar al Assad paves the way for strong man Recep Tayyip Erdogan to emerge and reap the benefits of the demise of the Assad family’s hold over Syria which has lasted for some 60 years. Erdogan came to power in Turkey in 2014 and my position is that he imagines himself to be the return of Suleiman the Magnificent who ruled the Ottoman Empire in the 1500’s when it was at the peak of its power. The Ottoman Empire served as the connection between the Middle east and Europe for some 600 years.
The Ottoman Empire, sometimes referred to as the Turkish Empire, ruled the Middle East until it was defeated and dissolved with the British and American victory in World War l. The destruction of the Ottoman Empire led to the power vacuum that has existed, at least to some degree, until today. Great Britain created the nations of the Middle east after its victory by simply drawing lines on the sand and making a map with those lines as separate countries which were really just a collection of Nomadic Tribes. I believe Erdogan came to power in Turkey with a dream of returning his country to the greatness it once had, and he is currently going about the business of rebuilding the Ottoman Empire under Turkish control.
His rebuilding uses overt war as we have recently seen, but it also operates through diplomacy and even subterfuge which he used to gain acceptance into NATO. Yes, that’s right, this Muslim country of Turkey, whose culture, religion, and way of life is completely averse to those of the West is a full-fledged NATO member. A close member of Erdogan’s inner circle of advisors recently said in a public interview that the goal of the Erdogan administration is the destruction of Western Civilization. The NATO alliance should remove Turkey because of that, but the problem is that the NATO charter has no provision for involuntarily removing a member or kicking someone out.
A majority of NATO members may want Turkey out, but the alliance is pretty woke right now and must think this is a woke world, so they try to read the tea leaves and apparently that requires more fear of being labeled Islamophobic than it does having an enemy nation in its midst. Erdogan, in the meantime, apparently seeks to Islamize Europe through Muslim immigration. He has, in essence, held Europe hostage and demanded money to prevent refugees from traveling upward from Syria through Turkey into Europe. The Europeans have paid the ransom in the past but right now one out of every 20 Syrians in the world resides in Germany thanks to Erdogan and the policies of former Chancellor Angela Merkel.
I could go on with this Neo-Ottoman story all day but to sum it up a little he is putting together a collection of Sunni nations in opposition to the Shiites that have ruled Syria in the past by way of Iran and to some extent Iraq. This is a coalition against Iran in other words, which brings me to how this played out in the war. I imagine that right now the leaders in Iran are feeling regret that they allowed their proxy in Gaza, Hamas, to launch the October 7, 2023, attack on Israeli civilians. That attack led to a general war between Israel and the proxy terrorist forces, of Iran. The civil war that ousted Assad from power would not have been possible without Israel’s destruction of Hezbollah in Lebanon as well as the other forces which helped Iran resupply Hezbollah with the missiles which have been raining down on Israel.
Assad could no longer be resupplied in Syria by Iran and apparently the Iraqi military was unwilling to help him. He was crumbling under the assault from three directions and to avoid capture he just got on a plane and flew to Moscow where he reportedly holds significant personal assets including real estate. Putin has said he would grant his old friend asylum. Erdogan apparently believes that the collection of Sharia Jihadists now in charge of Syria will be inclined in his direction. A Sunni Muslim group calling itself Hayat Tahrir al Sham or HTS was the prime mover in the conflict that ousted Assad. The group was previously associated with Al Qaeda and is officially designated a terrorist group by the United States as well as Turkey. That is part of the confusing mess that is Middle East politics.
Turkey’s military has protected the group in northern Syria by shielding them from attacks by pro-Assad military. Turkey also has served as a conduit for resupply of food and weapons to the group. Turkey is also the conduit for international aid into the region as well, so when the United States through some UN agency, delivers a few hundred million of aid it filters through Turkey and thereby gives Turkey influence and legitimacy.
I’m going to pause the military discussion for a moment and talk about all this aid coming from the United States taxpayers into the Middle East as well as into Ukraine. To a very large degree the aid is a self-perpetuating chain of money laundering for the officials on the ground like Zelensky in Ukraine and Erdogan in Turkey. They receive the billions from America which creates the money on a computer. The money is then simply added to the already existing 36 trillion of debt which burdens the American people in terms of future prosperity. The recipients of the aid dollars use part of it to contribute to the reelection efforts of various American politicians who then vote to give them more aid. Yes, folks I’m afraid that the reality is that this whole thing is at least partially a giant money laundering scam but that is international relations today.
This is all part of the problem with democracy and with democratic governments today. The problem with the welfare/warfare state as it conducts its affairs in the Middle East is that the more resources it gets, the more power it has. That concept is then transferred to those who wind up at the feeding trough as well. The more power the state has the more corrupt and parasitic its rulers become, and the more difficult it becomes to ever bring it under control.
So, finally Assad is out of the picture and Erdogan is ready to cash in on the investment he has made in all these terrorist groups for many years. The investment, to a large degree, has been made with American money, your money and mine, but it’s not like we got nothing for it. This is all part of the campaign started by Obama when he first took office which he called Assad must go. It took some years, but he finally achieved his goal. Even though Erdogan appears hostile to the U.S. a lot of times he knows where his money comes from. In return, Turkey lets the U.S. operate a large Air Force base called Incirlik in Turkey for use attacking targets all over the region. That base, Incirlik, is also where the U.S. stores nuclear weapons as a threat or warning for everyone in the area, especially Russia I presume.
This has made the Turkish American relations a lot more difficult. The U.S. has long supported the Kurds including giving them weapons and other supplies while Turkey considers them a hostile force on the Turkish border extending into Turkey from Syria and Iraq. The U.S. begged the Kurds to help destroy ISIS, but I’ll wager they are now glad the Kurds didn’t destroy ISIS. This is some of the intrigue that probably seems like fun to the chess masters who run or presume they run world affairs. The U.S. and Turkey are both NATO allies, but Turkey considers the Kurds a hostile enemy right on the Turkish border and the U.S. arms the Kurds presuming they will help fight ISIS which has been instrumental in the overthrow of Assad. Did you get all that, folks? Me either, but as confusing as it seems there are people who purport to understand it. The jest of it all is that it serves to make Turkey feel betrayed and therefore even more hostile.
Iran, as the chief and most hated enemy of Israel, comes out of this a big loser. The Iranians must feel embarrassed and even humiliated by their loss of an entire region. They are cut off and unable to resupply Hezbollah and therefore, Hezbollah is virtually powerless and virtually dead. Israel is free then and very much alive in the region. What does Israel want from all this war and bloodshed. Does the Jewish state want only to live in peace with its friendly neighbors as its leaders say or does it want territorial expansion into what many call “Greater Israel.”
Netanyahu said in his speech about the fall of Assad that Israel seeks peace with the Jihadi militias which toppled the Assad regime and also the other groups which occupy the area including the Kurds, the Druze militias, and the groups that once made up Al Quada and ISIS. He didn’t mention Turkey but one must presume that the hostilities between those nations will continue. He wants peace with those who want to live in peace with Israel and to prosper going forward or so he says.
In the meantime, Israel deployed paratroopers into Syria and the Golan Heights which once served as a kind of demilitarized zone between Hezbollah and Israel. Now, however, Netanyahu recently said, “the collapse of the Syrian regime is a direct result of the severe blows with which we have struck Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran.” He went on to say in a video address from the Golan Heights, that Israeli forces secured the entirety of the region as a security measure, and now the 1974 agreement between Israel and Assad is dissolved after Assad fled the country.
A 155-mile demilitarized zone to act as a buffer was established by the United Nations after the 1973 Yom Kippur war between Israel and a coalition of Arab states. Israel, through its military, now controls this entire region and Netanyahu made it clear that this region is part of Israel forever as he put it. The UN says that the Israeli occupation is a violation of the agreement, but Israel says no that agreement was dissolved when Assad fled to Moscow. So, greater Israel or just self-defense. I suppose we will know more in time.
Where does the United States stand in all this destruction. Does the U.S. have a role to play here other than the obvious one that a stable Middle East is in the best interest of the U.S. Despite ISIS helping to topple Assad, the U.S. continues to bomb suspected ISIS targets in Syria. Last Sunday, the day that Damascus fell to rebel forces, the U.S. hit 75 ISIS targets in Syria. Waves of B-52 strategic bombers, F-15 strike fighters, and A-10 air to ground jets struck targets all over Syria. U.S. officials stated that the strikes were not connected to the day’s events in Damascus but also pointed out that the targets were no longer defended by Russia which I suppose also implies that they once were. Very confusing because one almost needs a program to even figure out who the players are let alone which team they represent.
Apparently, these attacks were ordered by Joe Biden upon his hearing his successor’s statement about the Assad fall. Trump said that since the Russians and Iranians are both on the run, he doesn’t see that the U.S. has a further role to play in it. In other words, I surmise that he meant. This is not our war so let’s stay out of it. Biden then ordered the bombing attacks on the people who led the attacks against the enemy Assad. The President made a speech from the White House and admitted that he ordered the attacks to make sure there could be no resurgence of ISIS. That makes no sense at all and I’m still trying to find some sense in it. Quote from the President.
“It’s a moment of historic opportunity for the long-suffering people of Syria to build a better future for their proud country. It’s also a moment of risk and uncertainty. As we all turn to the question of what comes next, the United States will work with our partners and the stakeholders in Syria to help them seize an opportunity to manage the risk.”
Finally, folks, Donald Trump says this is not our war and we should stay out of it, but Joe Biden in his own words, says that the U.S. must lead all over the world and I guess he thinks that requires giving away money which is really just more debt and also making all regional wars bigger and worse.
At least that’s the way I see it,
Until January 3rd folks,
This is Darrell Castle,
Thanks for listening.
Photo Credit: Omar HAJ KADOUR / AFP
