2020 Election Analysis

The 2020 Presidential Elections are still on the minds of many Americans.  As a member of the Constitution Party Executive committee, I did an analysis of the election which I shared with the members of that committee. In discussing this with Jim Clymer, our new national chairman, we felt this information is something that our members would appreciate receiving.  It is with this in mind that this report has been prepared. We hope this is of value to each of you.

I want to share with you two reports showing the presidential vote totals for Blankenship and Mohr. The first report shows the number of votes garnered by the three minor parties in 2016 and 2020.  It also shows the state-by-state vote percentage that each CP state received in 2016 vs 2020.  Overall, the CP retained a higher vote percentage of the 2016 vote than did the Green Party, but less than the Libertarian.  In summary, all three parties were hit hard.  The vote percentage of the Libertarian and the Green Party should not change a lot since the Libertarians were on in all 50 states and the Green Party was on in 30 states. The CP had votes in only 18 due to issues in WY, NM, and SC.   Our percentage of 29.13% should increase once the write-in votes are tabulated, but that will take some time to get those. We did retain ballot access in WY.  Jeff Haggit got 2.9% of the vote (9,730 votes) in his US House race.  We needed 2% to retain ballot access.  We are grateful for that as Wyoming is a very difficult state to gain ballot access in.  Only the LP and the CP have ballot status there.  Wyoming simply forgot to turn in the electors, so Blankenship was not on the ballot. He would have done pretty well there.

If you compare state by state CP votes where the party was on the ballot for 2016 vs 2020, the CP did better than the LP.  Eleven of the 18 states got over 40% of the 2016 vote.  Utah was high with 68.15% of the 2016 vote.  However, we should have done much better than that due to the McMullen factor in 2016.  The LP Party did better than we did in that regard. We just did not run a good campaign this year and should have gotten more votes for Blankenship than we did. We did not get serious about the campaign until early Oct. and that was costly.   Even then, Utah got the highest total CP vote percentage with 0.4%.  Alaska was second with 0.3%.  North Carolina was impressive in that they gave Blankenship the most votes and just got ballot access in 2018.  Tennessee also did well. In 2016, Tennessee was a write-in state and Vermont was also a write-in state. With the exception of Tennessee and North Carolina, we did rather poorly in the Southern States.   In LA, MS, AR, and FL, we have next to no party organization other than just being on the ballot. That should hopefully change with the new regional chairmen in place.

On the second report, it shows the total vote thus far from each state and the percentage of the total CP vote that each state received.  Here, NC was tops, followed by MI. Five states, NC, MI, UT, TN, and WI got 30,772 votes for Blankenship or 52% of the total vote Blankenship got nationwide.  That is a serious indication of just how weak the party is in many states.  So, there is a lot of work that needs to be done. NC wants to begin ballot access right away which is most encouraging. It will be much cheaper now as petitioners want work.

In any event, it seems clear that our message resonates with the public.  Don did a remarkable job in his interviews. The one interview that Bill Mohr did in Michigan was good as well.  We just need to find a means of getting our message out to the public more effectively. Starting to do that now rather than four years down the road should make a huge difference. Getting our party leaders to move forward on that has always been a challenge, but with the new leadership in place in many states, we should be up to the task.

This information should be used as a valuable tool in building the party in the coming months and years. On another note,  an analysis of the vote for Trump and Biden was also done.  What we learned was interesting to say the least.  You can see that report here.

Listed are the vote totals and vote percentages the Democratic candidate and Trump got in 2016 and 2020. Of particular interest was the votes for Trump in the states of AZ, WI, MI, PA, NC, and GA. Take the time to visually compare those to similar votes in surrounding states.  It becomes obvious that the percentage of vote increase that Trump got in those states was very minuscule compared to the significant vote increase that Biden got in those states. It seems clear that 1) either votes were switched from Trump to Biden in those states or 2) there were a lot of undervotes for other candidates on the ballot, meaning that votes were cast for Biden and no other candidates on the ballot or 3) both of the above.  Those are both big red flags implying vote fraud. Those figures are printed in bold type.  Anyway, we thought you might be interested in reviewing them.

Frank Fluckiger
Member of the Executive Committee